If you’re campaigning for a living wage, sooner or later you’ll be confronted with claims about the likely impact on businesses or employment rates. Such arguments can seem daunting if, like most of us, you’re not an economist. What I have found most useful in understanding the issues is reading through some of the submissions to the Low Pay Commission, and the LPC’s report itself.
—— Impact on (un)employment ——
Yes, economists have produced models which link higher wages with rises in unemployment. Such models are not very helpful, often focusing as they do on specific aspects of the labour market in isolation from the wider economy and society.
The predictions that the NMW would lead to an increase in unemployment has proven false. Since its introduction in 1999, the NMW has risen by well over the rate of inflation, while the number of people in work has risen by 1.5 million. Even in the sectors that employ most low paid staff, while there are some variations between sectors, the overall picture is that employment levels are stable or increasing.
But surely, the argument goes, there has to be a tipping point : if you increase the NMW by too much so that it squuezes businesses too far, then it will inevitably have an adverse effect on jobs. However there is no consensus on how far is “too far”. Again and again economists have accused the government of going too far, but the scares have all proved groundless. What is the reason for this ? I suspect part of the reason may be that economists have consistently underestimated the beneficial aspects of higher wages to businesses and the economy.
—— Impact on businesses and the economy ——
Low pay is well known to lead to higher turnover of staff, leading to additional recruitment and training costs for businesses. It may also affect the level of service that a business can provide, as staff who are struggling to sustain themselves are more likely to have low motivation and commitment to the job, which could lead to poor service and absenteeism.
While it is undeniable that the NMW has had some impact on businesses, particularly smaller firms with tight profit margins, overall levels of profitability in the economy as a whole and the low paying service sector in particular remain very high. Many of these businesses have welcomed the NMW as a positive reform. Problems such as reduced pay differentials have been addressed through various means such as multiskilling and payscale restructuring. A recent survey of 150 organisations found that almost half (48%) agreed with the current NMW rate, while nearly four out of 10 (39%) said it should be higher still.
This mirrors the experience of successful living wage campaigns in the USA, which have brought many benefits to the businesses involved.
—— Impact on living standards ——
Let’s be honest : none of us become living wage campaigners because we want to help out business. I support a living wage because it’s morally right. And if it results in redistributing some of the profits being generated into the pockets of lower income families, so much the better. The only real question that matters – or should matter – is whether paying a particular group of workers a living wage will improve their living standards. And the answer that comes again and again from the workers themselves is a resounding yes.